A hiring manager at a Memphis security company told me something blunt in March. “I posted ten guard positions on Indeed. Got forty applications. Twelve showed up for interviews. Six passed background checks. Three made it through training. Two quit within a month.” He paused. “And those two openings are still unfilled.”
This isn’t a story about one company’s bad luck. It’s the new reality across Tennessee’s private security industry. The guard shortage that started as a nuisance two or three years ago has become a full-blown crisis, and it’s forcing companies to rethink everything from pay scales to business models.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Tennessee’s unemployment rate hovered near 3.4% through early 2019. That’s historically low. In Shelby County, the rate was slightly higher at around 4.2%, but the trend line pointed downward. For workers, low unemployment means choices. For employers trying to fill positions that pay $10 to $11 an hour, it means empty posts.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported roughly 16,000 private security guards employed across Tennessee in 2018. Industry estimates suggest the state needs 2,000 to 3,000 additional guards to meet current demand. That gap will widen if crime trends continue upward (Memphis hit 184 homicides last year) and commercial development keeps booming in Nashville and the suburbs.
Turnover is the bigger problem. National industry turnover for unarmed security guards runs between 100% and 200% annually, depending on which survey you read. Memphis operators I spoke with confirmed those numbers match local experience. One mid-size firm reported losing and replacing its entire frontline workforce twice in 2018.
Every departure costs money. ASIS International pegs the replacement cost for a single security officer at roughly $3,500 when you account for recruiting, background checks, TDCI registration, uniforms, training hours, and the supervisory time burned during onboarding. For a company replacing 150 guards a year, that’s over $500,000 in turnover costs alone.
Amazon Changed Everything
You can’t understand the guard shortage in Memphis without understanding the warehouse economy. FedEx has been this city’s largest employer for decades, running massive sorting facilities across Shelby County. Amazon opened its first Memphis-area fulfillment center in 2018, with starting wages around $15 an hour and a signing bonus.
Fifteen dollars an hour. Inside a climate-controlled building. With benefits. No night shifts standing alone in a dark parking lot. No confrontations with trespassers. No responsibility for other people’s safety.
Compare that to a typical security guard post. Ten to eleven dollars an hour. Outdoors in August heat or January cold. Alone on a construction site at 2 a.m. Dealing with aggressive trespassers, shoplifters, and the occasional person in mental health crisis. No health insurance at most small firms. Irregular schedules.
The choice is obvious. And workers are making it.
It’s not just Amazon and FedEx. Dollar General’s Olive Branch distribution center, the Walmart fulfillment operation in Senatobia, the Target facility in Memphis. Warehouse and logistics jobs have flooded the labor market across the Mid-South, all paying more than entry-level security work with fewer risks and more predictable hours.
Wages Are Moving, Slowly
The market is responding, though not as fast as workers might like. Two years ago, $10 an hour was standard for unarmed guard positions in Memphis. Today, most established companies have moved to $11 or $12. Some are posting at $13 for experienced guards willing to work overnight shifts.
In Nashville, wages have pushed even higher. The construction boom and commercial growth in Davidson County have created intense competition for guards. I’ve seen postings at $14 to $15 for unarmed positions in downtown Nashville. Armed guards there command $17 to $20.
Phelps Security, the Memphis firm that’s been operating since 1960, adjusted its pay scale upward last year. Multiple sources confirmed the move. Imperial Security on Poplar Avenue reportedly did the same. The national firms, Securitas and Allied Universal, tend to price their guards according to the contract, meaning wages vary widely depending on what the client is paying.
The pressure comes from both sides. Guards won’t accept poverty wages when alternatives exist. Clients won’t accept the lousy service that comes with poorly paid, poorly motivated guards. Property managers are starting to understand that the cheapest security contract often delivers the worst results.
Quality Is Suffering
The shortage doesn’t just mean empty posts. It means lower standards at filled ones. When a company can’t find qualified candidates, the temptation to lower the bar is strong. Background check came back with a misdemeanor from five years ago? Hire them anyway. Candidate has spotty work history? Put them on the schedule. New guard seems disinterested during training? There’s no one else.
I’ve heard stories from property managers across Memphis that confirm this trend. Guards sleeping on post. Guards on their phones for entire shifts. Guards who can’t write a coherent incident report. Guards who abandon posts without notice, sometimes mid-shift.
These aren’t character failures. They’re symptoms of an industry that can’t attract and retain good people because it won’t pay enough to compete. A motivated, professional security officer exists. They just won’t work for $10.50 an hour when Target is hiring at $13.
The ripple effects hit clients and reputable companies hardest. A property manager who gets burned by a lousy guard starts questioning whether private security is worth the investment at all. A quality firm that loses a contract to a cheaper competitor watches that competitor staff the post with warm bodies instead of trained officers.
What Companies Are Trying
Some firms are getting creative. Signing bonuses of $200 to $500 for new hires who stay 90 days. Referral bonuses for current employees who recruit friends. Accelerated promotion paths from guard to shift supervisor. Tuition assistance for guards pursuing criminal justice degrees.
Walden Security, the Chattanooga-based firm with growing operations across Tennessee, has invested in what they call “career pathing” for officers. The idea is that a guard post isn’t a dead-end job; it’s the first rung on a ladder that can lead to supervision, management, or specialized security roles. Whether that pitch resonates with a 22-year-old weighing security work against an Amazon warehouse remains to be seen.
Technology is another lever. Companies deploying mobile patrol apps, GPS tracking, and digital reporting can run leaner operations, using fewer guards more efficiently. A mobile patrol officer covering three properties in a shift, guided by GPS routing and checking in via smartphone, can deliver comparable deterrence to three static posts at a fraction of the labor cost.
The problem with the technology approach is that it requires upfront investment that most small Memphis firms can’t afford. And it doesn’t eliminate the need for human beings entirely. Someone still has to drive the patrol car, respond to alarms, and confront trespassers. You can optimize deployments with software. You can’t replace a guard with an app. Not yet.
The Client’s Dilemma
If you’re a Memphis business owner buying security services right now, you’re caught in an uncomfortable position. You need guards. Guard quality is declining. Prices are rising. And switching companies often just trades one set of problems for another.
My advice: stop buying on price. The cheapest security bid in 2019 is almost certainly the worst. Ask prospective companies about their pay rates, not just their bill rates. If they’re billing you $15 an hour and paying the guard $9, that guard is leaving within 60 days and you’ll be back to square one.
Ask about turnover. A company that can’t tell you its annual turnover rate either doesn’t track it or doesn’t want you to know. Either answer is disqualifying.
Ask about supervision. How often does a supervisor visit your site? Is there a quality assurance program? Can you see patrol verification reports? Companies that invest in supervision retain better guards because officers who feel supported and monitored perform better than those left alone on a post for eight hours without contact.
Where This Goes
The guard shortage won’t resolve in 2019. Not with unemployment this low and warehouse wages this high. Tennessee’s security industry is in the early stages of a structural adjustment that will play out over years.
The companies that survive will be the ones that figure out how to attract and keep quality people. Higher wages are necessary. They’re not sufficient. Guards also want decent schedules, competent supervision, proper equipment, and some sense that their work matters.
The companies that keep grinding at $10 an hour and 150% turnover will find themselves with fewer clients, worse guards, and shrinking margins. Some of them won’t make it to 2020.
That’s not a prediction. It’s arithmetic.