If you had to describe Tennessee’s security industry in 2022 with a single sentence, it would be this: the worse things got, the more business there was.
Memphis is on pace to finish the year with roughly 340 homicides, a number that would make 2022 the second-deadliest year in the city’s modern history. Carjackings remained at epidemic levels. A woman was murdered while jogging in a Midtown neighborhood. The public’s confidence in its own safety cratered. And private security firms grew revenue by an estimated 15-25% statewide.
That’s the uncomfortable arithmetic of the industry. Security companies don’t cause crime. They respond to it. And 2022 gave them an enormous amount to respond to.
Memphis: Another Year of Records Nobody Wanted
Through November, Memphis had recorded approximately 325 homicides. December will add to the total. Whether the final count lands closer to 340 or 350 matters less than the trajectory: this is the third consecutive year above 300.
The city’s per capita murder rate places it among the most dangerous in the country, consistently ranking in the top five alongside St. Louis, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Detroit. Memphis PD ended the year roughly 500 officers below its authorized strength of 2,300. Recruitment has not kept pace with attrition, retirements, and officers leaving for suburban departments that offer better pay and lower risk.
Carjackings defined 2022 in Memphis the way they defined 2021. MPD reported over 1,000 carjackings through November, a pace that tracks almost identically to the prior year. Many involved juveniles. The Shelby County juvenile court system processed hundreds of carjacking-related cases, with repeat offenders cycling through a system that lacks the capacity and, critics argue, the political will to impose meaningful consequences.
Aggravated assaults, robberies, and burglaries all remained elevated. The Shelby County DA’s office prosecuted more felony cases than any year in recent memory while simultaneously managing a pandemic-era backlog that still hasn’t fully cleared.
The Eliza Fletcher Inflection Point
No single event shaped Memphis’s security conversation in 2022 more than the murder of Eliza Fletcher on September 2. The case changed how the city talks about safety, how residents spend money on protection, and how the security industry markets its services.
The facts are by now well known. Fletcher was abducted while jogging near the University of Memphis at 4:20 a.m. Her body was found four days later. Cleotha Abston, a convicted kidnapper previously released from prison, was arrested and charged.
What followed was a demand spike that security firms described as something they’d never seen before (their words, not mine). Residential patrol inquiries jumped 40-60% in September and October. Personal safety product sales surged. Gated community interest exploded. The University of Memphis added security patrols and lighting. Midtown businesses hired guards for their parking lots.
The Fletcher case gave specific, personal shape to statistics that had been abstract. 346 homicides in 2021 is a number. Eliza Fletcher was a 34-year-old mother of two who went for a morning run. The emotional difference between those two things drove spending decisions that raw data hadn’t been able to produce.
SCORPION: The Unit Memphis Can’t Quit
The Street Crimes Operation to Restore Peace in Our Neighborhoods, or SCORPION, remained one of the most controversial elements of Memphis policing in 2022. The unit, established in late 2021 as an aggressive crime suppression task force, operated through the year with a mandate to reduce violent crime in targeted areas.
SCORPION officers conducted high-volume traffic stops, warrant sweeps, and targeted operations in neighborhoods with elevated crime rates. The results, measured in arrests and seizures, were significant. The controversy, measured in community complaints and use-of-force incidents, was equally significant.
Residents in neighborhoods where SCORPION operated frequently described the unit’s tactics as aggressive and intimidating. Traffic stops that escalated quickly. Confrontational approaches during routine encounters. Complaints about excessive force filed with MPD’s internal affairs division increased in areas where SCORPION was most active.
Memphis police leadership defended the unit throughout 2022, pointing to seizures of illegal firearms, drug arrests, and violent crime reductions in targeted zones. Critics countered that the reductions were temporary and localized, dispersing crime to adjacent areas rather than eliminating it.
The tension between aggressive policing and community trust is not new in Memphis. SCORPION crystallized it into a specific debate. At year’s end, the unit continued operating with strong institutional support from MPD leadership and the mayor’s office. Community organizations continued pushing back. Neither side showed signs of yielding.
(The significance of SCORPION’s trajectory won’t become fully clear until early 2023, when events will force a reckoning that nobody at MPD is anticipating as of this writing.)
Inflation Hits the Guard Force
The Consumer Price Index rose 7.7% year-over-year as of October 2022. For security firm operators, that number manifested in two painful ways: guards demanding higher wages and clients resisting price increases.
Entry-level unarmed guard wages in Memphis rose from $12-13 per hour at the start of the year to $14-16 by fall. Armed guard rates climbed to $18-25 depending on the assignment and the officer’s qualifications. These increases were necessary. Guards can’t live on $12 an hour when groceries cost 12% more than they did in 2021 and gas has been above $3.50 for most of the year.
The problem is that many security contracts are annual agreements with fixed pricing. A firm that signed a 12-month contract in January 2022 at rates based on $13-per-hour guard wages is now paying those guards $15 and absorbing the difference. Renegotiating mid-contract is difficult. Losing good guards because you can’t match the market rate is worse.
Several Tennessee firm owners described 2022 as a year where revenue grew and margins shrank. More contracts at worse economics. The firms that adjusted pricing quickly and communicated the reasons to clients survived with margins intact. The firms that absorbed costs to avoid losing business are looking at a 2023 where something has to give.
The Armed Guard Shortage
Tennessee has been short on armed security officers for years. 2022 made it worse.
Armed guard registration through TDCI requires firearms qualification, additional training hours, and a background check that’s more rigorous than unarmed registration. The pool of qualified candidates is limited to begin with. Many of the best armed officer candidates are former law enforcement or military who can command $25-30 per hour in the Memphis market, pricing them out of budget-constrained contracts.
Client demand for armed guards has intensified. Property managers, retailers, and residential clients increasingly specify armed officers in their contract requirements. The Fletcher case and sustained violent crime made armed security feel like a necessity rather than a premium upgrade.
Firms that can’t fill armed positions are losing contracts to competitors who can. National firms like Allied Universal and Securitas have advantages in recruiting because they offer benefits, career paths, and the stability of a large organization. Tennessee’s smaller firms compete on relationships and local knowledge, which matters, and on flexibility, which matters more. What they can’t compete on is scale.
Nashville’s Boom Year
While Memphis struggled, Nashville thrived. The city’s population growth, corporate relocations, and construction boom created sustained demand for security services throughout 2022.
Oracle’s under-construction campus on the East Bank of the Cumberland River required security staffing throughout the year. Amazon’s multiple Nashville-area facilities employed both in-house and contract security. Healthcare companies expanding in the Nashville corridor (HCA Healthcare, Community Health Systems) needed facility security for new offices and campuses.
Nashville’s security market is qualitatively different from Memphis’s. Memphis demand is driven by crime. Nashville demand is driven by growth. Crime-driven demand is reactive and defensive. Growth-driven demand is proactive and often comes with bigger budgets and longer contract terms. Security firms that can serve both markets (and several Tennessee firms operate statewide) benefit from diversification.
The Metro Nashville Council passed two pieces of security-related legislation in 2022. One tightened requirements for security personnel at bars and entertainment venues (responding to incidents on Broadway). The other established a grant program for small businesses to install security cameras in specific commercial corridors. Neither bill generated much public attention. Both created new market opportunities for firms operating in Davidson County.
Technology Accelerated
2022 was the year that security technology moved from “nice to have” to “expected” for mid-market and above clients in Tennessee.
License plate readers expanded across Memphis. Body cameras became standard issue at several major firms. GPS tracking in patrol vehicles is now the norm rather than the exception for any firm pursuing commercial contracts. Video analytics platforms, while still oversold in many cases, gained traction with property management companies looking to reduce overnight staffing.
The technology trend benefits larger firms disproportionately. A $50,000 investment in camera analytics or ALPR systems is a rounding error for Allied Universal. For a five-person Tennessee firm running on 8% margins, it’s the difference between profit and loss.
Small firms are finding workarounds. Cloud-based security platforms with monthly subscription pricing (rather than large upfront capital expenditure) have made some technology accessible to operators who couldn’t afford it three years ago. Whether these tools actually improve security outcomes or just check boxes on proposal documents depends entirely on how well they’re implemented and maintained.
The Legislative Angle
The Tennessee General Assembly passed several bills in 2022 that affect the security industry, though none received significant media coverage.
HB 2661 clarified that private security companies can employ individuals with certain misdemeanor records, expanding the eligible labor pool. The bill was supported by industry groups and opposed by some law enforcement organizations concerned about lowering hiring standards.
SB 2402 increased penalties for assaulting a security officer on duty, bringing the offense closer to parity with assaulting a police officer. The bill passed with bipartisan support and was signed by Governor Lee in May.
The legislature also continued debating modifications to the state’s permitless carry law, which eliminated the requirement for a handgun carry permit in 2021. Security industry leaders have raised concerns about the law’s impact on public behavior and the difficulty of distinguishing between lawfully armed citizens and potential threats. The debate will continue into 2023.
What 2023 Looks Like from Here
Predictions are a trap. Here’s what the data suggests.
Memphis crime will remain elevated unless MPD can close its staffing gap, and there’s no sign that’s happening quickly. The police academy is graduating smaller classes than the department needs to keep pace with attrition, let alone grow. The crime trends that drove 2022’s security demand will persist.
Guard wages will continue rising. The labor market shows no signs of loosening, and Amazon isn’t lowering its pay. Firms that haven’t raised prices will be forced to or will exit the market.
Technology investment will accelerate because it has to. Firms can’t hire enough people. Technology fills gaps imperfectly. The alternative is unfilled posts and lost contracts.
Regulatory scrutiny from TDCI will increase. The department signaled a more aggressive enforcement posture in late 2022. Firms operating with unlicensed personnel or insufficient training documentation should expect audits.
And Memphis will keep being Memphis. The city’s security needs are structural, rooted in decades of economic segregation, educational inequity, and criminal justice dysfunction that no amount of private security spending will fix. The industry will keep growing. The reasons for that growth will keep getting worse.
That’s the paradox of security in Tennessee. The industry’s best year is everyone else’s worst.